413
FXUS65 KFGZ 091742
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1042 AM MST MON MAR 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND EVEN WARMER WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
A ROBUST CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY, AS ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM DIPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SCOUR IT OUT. THE LOW IS CLOSEST TO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING.
WHEN THE LOW EJECTS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA, POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS I-40. THIS
WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR (MAINLY) RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY, BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES QUICKLY BACK INTO THE
PICTURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF
FLAGSTAFF COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 0.50" OF RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT, AS
WELL AS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. HOWEVER, MANY AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL REMAIN DRY.
STRONG RIDGING REDEVELOPS AFTER TUESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...MONDAY 09/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 10/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, A HEAVIER SHOWER COULD CAUSE BRIEF MVFR. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE IN BETWEEN 00Z TUES AND STAY THROUGH 18Z TUES FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WINDS S-SW 10-20KTS, GUSTS TO
25KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 10/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 12/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, BRIEF MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. AFTERWARD DRY AREA
WIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS W-NW 10-20KTS TUESDAY, NW-N
5-10KTS WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN DECREASING AND SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF AND SOUTH OF I-40.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL DIP ON TUESDAY.
WINDS SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH MONDAY AND WESTERLY 15 TO
25 MPH TUESDAY, HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WINDS
NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SHIFTING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH WEST ON FRIDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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