344
FXUS65 KFGZ 092147
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
247 PM MST MON MAR 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND EVEN WARMER WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
THE CUT-OFF LOW WHICH HAS STALLED OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO PUSH
EASTWARD. THIS DISTURBANCE COMES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO US
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, AND WILL BRING A SURGE OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL PW AND SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS
ENCROACH FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5-6 PM TONIGHT, THEN PEAK IN
COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. ACTIVITY THEN DECLINES AND PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, FULLY DIMINISHING BY THE EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TOO WARM FOR SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF SITES
ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. SNOW LEVELS START OVER 9000 FT AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION, AND MAY DROP AS LOW AS 8000-8500 FT EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW LOOKS
TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
ALSO, A FEW HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS REGIME. OVERALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
0.30-0.60 INCHES ARE FORECAST, LARGELY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. AREAS NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF WILL
STAY DRY.
BY WEDNESDAY WE COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG WEST COAST
RIDGE, AND IT'S RIGHT BACK TO WARM AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION...MONDAY 09/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 10/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, A HEAVIER SHOWER COULD CAUSE BRIEF MVFR. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE IN BETWEEN 00Z TUES AND STAY THROUGH 18Z TUES FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WINDS S-SW 10-20KTS, GUSTS TO
25KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 10/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 12/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, BRIEF MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. AFTERWARD DRY AREA
WIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS W-NW 10-20KTS TUESDAY, NW-N
5-10KTS WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAIN OVER EASTERN ARIZONA, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 87 AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM 0.05" TO 0.25", WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS W-NW 10-20 MPH TUESDAY, N-NE
5-15 MPH WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGE FROM 20% HIGH DESERTS
TO 55% EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY, DROPPING TO
10-25% WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS NW-N 5-15 MPH
THURSDAY, SW 5-15 MPH FRIDAY, W 10-20 MPH SATURDAY. MIN RH VALUES 10-
20% THURSDAY, 5-15% FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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