105
FXUS65 KFGZ 272354
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
454 PM MST FRI MAR 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. CONSEQUENTLY,
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN SOME WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH DEVELOPING.
IN ADDITION, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA. THE INCREASE WILL BE ENOUGH ON SUNDAY FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
ARIZONA WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONTINUED TROUGHING AND LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER AND STRAY THUNDERSTORM THREAT,
MAINLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING (KINDA LIKE THE MONSOON BUT NOT).
THE ADDITION TROUGHING WILL DELIVER COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA, STILL REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DAYTIME WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, PERHAPS STRENGTHENING ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH AS A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES.
ON WEDNESDAY...MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A STRONGER TROUGH
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA. IF THE CONSENSUS OF
MODELS HOLDS WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA. IN ANY CASE, EVEN COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES (SOMETHING WE
HAVEN'T SAID IN A LONG TIME). GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT SERIES OF TROUGHS
HEADS EASTWARD.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 28/00Z THROUGH SUNDAY 29/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE SE-S 5-10 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS THROUGH 03Z, THEN
LINGER AT 5-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS S-SW 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO
20-25 KTS AFTER 18Z. OCCASIONAL HAZE/SMOKE IN VICINITY OF
KFLG/KSEZ DUE TO A PRESCRIBED BURN.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 29/00Z THROUGH TUESDAY 31/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST. S TO W WINDS AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS EACH
DAY. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER
18Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. A BIT OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON
SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH ON SATURDAY
DIMINISHING TO 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 5-15% ON
SATURDAY CLIMBING TO 15-25% ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WETTING RAIN (>0.10") IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT COULD SNEAK INTO THE PICTURE
ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH ON MONDAY,
INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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