329
FXUS65 KFGZ 281125
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
425 AM MST SAT MAR 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND BREAKING DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND, PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS A TROUGH
STARTS TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.
AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND STARTS TO PUSH FURTHER TO THE EAST, OUR
FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE ZONAL ON SUNDAY AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SO WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME
MOISTURE FIND ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY, WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP, LIKELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA ON
MONDAY. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND,
WHILE THEY ARE NOT ROBUST, SHOULD PROVED ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY, CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE LOOKS
TO HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
US WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE REGION CONTINUES TO
VARY, WHICH IMPACTS OUR OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH THE
TIMING. AT A MINIMUM, THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AIR SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL AND EXPECT CLOUDIER
SKIES. GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH
POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER TROUGH STARTS TO DIG DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH MAY NOT DIG DOWN DEEP
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BUT MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING.
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING WEEK BUT AT LEAST WE WILL GET A
BREAK FROM THE WARM, DRY WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN ON REPEAT LATELY.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 28/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 29/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
SE-S WINDS 5-15 KTS, SHIFTING TO S-SW 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS
AFTER 18Z, THEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT AFTER 02Z. OCCASIONAL HZ/FU
NEAR KFLG/KSEZ DUE TO A PRESCRIBED BURN.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 29/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 31/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
S-W WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-30 KTS ON SUNDAY, THEN 10-20 KTS
GUSTING 25-35 KTS ON MONDAY. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SUNDAY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH
TODAY, THEN DIMINISHING TO 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN
5-15% TODAY, INCREASING TO 15-25% ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BECOMING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WETTING RAIN (>0.10") IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH
ON MONDAY, INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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