936
FXUS65 KFGZ 290541
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1041 PM MST SAT MAR 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE THIS WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
A TROUGH SKIRTING BY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY HAS FLATTENED OUR RIDGE AND STARTED SHOVING IT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
RIDGE WILL ELEVATE OUR WINDS A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SW WINDS 10-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH. RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL ACTUALLY BRING SOME MOISTURE UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND COULD GIVE US A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. BETTER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME CAPE GETS BROUGHT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATES SEEING THE
BEST CHANCES. ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
TO THE AREA, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EVEN DURING THE PEAK OF THIS PAST HEAT WAVE THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AT THE TIME ALLOWED FOR SOME BIG DIURNAL SWINGS, AS MUCH AS
40-60 DEGREES. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE THE DIURNAL SWING WILL BE
ONLY ABOUT 20-30 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING BEING ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
BY ABOUT TUESDAY FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL WHICH SHOULD PUSH SOME OF
THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE REASON BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL FINALLY DROP OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
COULD INTERACT WITH THE REMAINING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS.
THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THINGS WILL DRY OUT AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH OR HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IF ANY IT WILL BRING.
WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW FUTURE RUNS PLAY OUT.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 29/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 30/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 19Z.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VRB OR TERRAIN DRIVEN TONIGHT. BECOMING SW-W
10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-30 KTS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY, THEN WEAKENING AFTER
02Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 30/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 01/06Z...PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE SW-W 10-20 KTS GUSTING 25-35 KTS EACH DAY.
-SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL SEE A FURTHER
MOISTURE INCREASE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY
INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON RH INCREASING TO 15-25%
ON SUNDAY AND THEN 20-30% ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, BECOMING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ON
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WETTING RAIN (>0.10") IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY BUT MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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