904
FXUS65 KFGZ 291127
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
427 AM MST SUN MAR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST THIS MORNING, LEAVING A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY, ALLOWING FOR
THE FLOW TO STAY SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND SOME MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO TO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE IT ISN'T A
LOT OF MOISTURE, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE DAY WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN
UP SO EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH GUSTING
TO 25-30 MPH.
THE ZONAL FLOW HANGS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A FEW WEAK
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND, WE WON'T HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE SOURCE, BUT EXPECT
MOISTURE TO INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY. EVEN WITH THE WAVES
REMAINING ON THE WEAKER SIDE, LIFT WILL INCREASE SO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW
LATE TUESDAY, CROSSING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE
A DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AND SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH CLEARS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH EACH DAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH STARTS TO DIG DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS, THE TIMING/STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE TROUGH VARIES WITH
MODELS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT MORE SHOWERS FOR OUR
REGION.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 29/12Z THROUGH MONDAY 30/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 19Z. LIGHT AND VRB
WINDS, BECOMING SW-W 10-20 KTS GUSTING 20-30 KTS AFTER 18Z, THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 02Z.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 30/12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 01/12Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH
AFTERNOON. SW-W WINDS 15-25 KTS GUSTING 25-35 KTS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
TODAY WITH ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH TODAY, INCREASING TO
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON RH 15-25%
TODAY, RISING TO 20-30% ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WETTING RAIN (>0.10") IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR
THURSDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH GUSTING TO 25-
35 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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