203
FXUS65 KFGZ 300551
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1051 PM MST SUN MAR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
OUR LONG TERM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS SAT OVER
US ALL WEEK HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF STATES.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THAT HIGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
BRINGING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY UP TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK MESO LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
INTERACTING WITH THAT MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OVER OUR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT
THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME
MILD NIGHTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE EXTRA MOISTURE IN THE
AIR WILL INHIBIT OVERNIGHT COOLING.
COME MONDAY, THIS MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE FURTHER NORTHWARD AND THIS
ALONG WITH SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DON'T LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE, GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
SOME BRIEF DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SEEING A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
HIGH BASED STORM. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH DROPPING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
THIS TIME OF YEAR, SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T SEEN FOR WEEKS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION BUT THIS
WILL BE A RAIN EVENT WITH ONLY THE TIP TOPS OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS SEEING ANY CHANCE FOR SNOW. THIS WAVE DEPARTS BY
THURSDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST ON FRIDAY BUT AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION STAYS TO THE NORTH. IF ANYTHING
THIS TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR AS WELL AS KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER, THOUGH AGAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION...MONDAY 30/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 31/06Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA PRIMARILY EAST OF A KPRC-KFLG-
FOUR CORNERS LINE AFTER 20Z. WINDS ARE SW AT 5-15 KTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT, BECOMING 15-25 KTS GUSTING 25-35 KTS AFTER 17Z. WINDS
DECLINE AFTER 02Z, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 31/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 02/06Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED -SHRA LINGERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SW TO W AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING 25-40 KTS EACH DAY.
WINDS DIMINISH SOME BUT REMAIN LOCALLY GUSTY FROM THE SW DURING
OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF-FOUR CORNERS LINE.
GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS, WETTING
RAIN NOT ANTICIPATED. TUESDAY WILL SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FOR ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH EACH DAY. AFTERNOON RH 20-30% ON MONDAY THEN 15-
25% ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE. GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
WETTING RAIN (>0.10") IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH
GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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