703
FXUS65 KFGZ 301110
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST MON MAR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COOLING TREND STARTS TODAY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN DRY OUT.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF STATES THIS
MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A TROUGH TO START PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST,
EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ZONAL
FLOW WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY, ENHANCING THE
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE EAST OF THE I-17
CORRIDOR THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
INSTABILITY INCREASES SO THUNDERSTORMS SEEM MORE LIKELY FOR TODAY,
BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THEY MAY END UP REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. WITH
THE GRADIENT REMAINING FAIRLY TIGHT, IT WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-35 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WAVE WILL HAVE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME SPOTS
SEEING UP TO 0.25" OF RAIN. AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION AND
THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN, WE COULD SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES FALL
BUT THEY WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS SNOW
LEVELS ARE ABOVE 8000 FEET.
THE TROUGH CLEARS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH.
ANOTHER TROUGH STARTS TO DIG DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP THIS TROUGH OFF TO OUR
NORTH, POSSIBLY BRUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WE WOULD
SEE ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO
LOOK TO DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN STARTING TO TREND WARMER.
AVIATION...MONDAY 30/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 31/12Z
MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MOSTLY EAST OF A KPRC-KFLG-0V7 AFTER
19Z. SW WINDS 5-15 KTS, INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS GUSTING 25-35 KTS
AFTER 17Z. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-15 KTS AFTER 04Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 31/12Z THROUGH THURSDAY 02/12Z...MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SW-W WINDS 15-25 KTS
GUSTING 25-40 KTS EACH DAY. WINDS DIMINISH AT NIGHT BUT REMAIN
LOCALLY GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND TUESDAY
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF-FOUR CORNERS LINE. GUSTY
WINDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS
BUT A WETTING RAIN (>0.10") IS NOT EXPECTED. SHOWERS BECOME ISOLATED
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH
TODAY, GUSTS INCREASING TO 30-40 MPH ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE VICINITY
OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WETTING RAIN (>0.10") IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN DECREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH
ON FRIDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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