097
FXUS65 KFGZ 302007
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
107 PM MST MON MAR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TOMORROW. ALONG
WITH THE COOLER WEATHER THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
AT THIS TIME. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FROM I-17 EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING
AFTER WHICH CHANCES DROP AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA,
ARRIVING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL KICK UP
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AGAIN BUT A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM 11AM TO 8PM TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT A BIG
SYSTEM BUT MOST OF THE AREA COULD SEE ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH,
WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
DESPITE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FINALLY COOLING BACK DOWN TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR BY WEDNESDAY, THIS IS STILL A
MILD SYSTEM SO ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY CHANCE FOR SNOW
AND PROBABLY ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST.
THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN AS THIS WAVE PUSHES EAST ON THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL STILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER TROUGH BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND
THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA USHERING IN SOME NORTHERLY
BREEZES AND SOME DRIER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING A
COUPLE DEGREES. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS RELATIVELY PLEASANT
WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY, DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZES.
AVIATION...MONDAY 30/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 31/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED SHRA/-TSRA MOSTLY EAST OF A KPRC-KFLG-0V7 LINE. WINDS SW
AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING 25-35 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-15 KTS AFTER
02Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 31/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 02/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITION FORECAST. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER AND
CLEARING SKIES MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING ON
THURSDAY. WINDS W TO SW AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING 25-40 KTS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AT NIGHT BUT REMAIN LOCALLY
GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE RECENT MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL COMBINE WITH A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BECOMING
SCATTERED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LOCAL
AREAS OF WETTING RAIN (>0.10") EXPECTED. DRYING OUT LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH
BOTH DAYS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH ON THURSDAY.
WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AT TO 5-15 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 25
MPH ON FRIDAY THEN SWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
TUESDAY FOR AZZ004-006-007-012-013-015-039-040.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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