792
FXUS65 KFGZ 310526
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1026 PM MST MON MAR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TOMORROW. ALONG
WITH THE COOLER WEATHER THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
AT THIS TIME. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FROM I-17 EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING
AFTER WHICH CHANCES DROP AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA,
ARRIVING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL KICK UP
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AGAIN BUT A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM 11AM TO 8PM TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT A BIG
SYSTEM BUT MOST OF THE AREA COULD SEE ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH,
WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
DESPITE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FINALLY COOLING BACK DOWN TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR BY WEDNESDAY, THIS IS STILL A
MILD SYSTEM SO ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY CHANCE FOR SNOW
AND PROBABLY ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST.
THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN AS THIS WAVE PUSHES EAST ON THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL STILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER TROUGH BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND
THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA USHERING IN SOME NORTHERLY
BREEZES AND SOME DRIER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING A
COUPLE DEGREES. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS RELATIVELY PLEASANT
WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY, DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZES.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 31/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 01/06Z
EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS MAINLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN
BECOMING W-SW15-25G30-40KTS AFT 17Z-19Z TUESDAY, CONTINUING TUESDAY
NIGHT. AREAS -TSRA/SHRA AFT 20Z-22Z TUESDAY, HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE MVFR.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 01/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 03/06Z...AREAS -TSRA/SHRA
THROUGH 15Z-20Z WEDNESDAY, HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR.
MOST PLACES VFR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, IMPROVEMENT SPREADING FROM
NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALL AREAS VFR AFT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
EXPECT SFC WINDS W-SW15-25G30-35KTS BOTH DAYS, LIGHTER AT NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE RECENT MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL COMBINE WITH A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BECOMING
SCATTERED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LOCAL
AREAS OF WETTING RAIN (>0.10") EXPECTED. DRYING OUT LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH
BOTH DAYS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH ON THURSDAY.
WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AT TO 5-15 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 25
MPH ON FRIDAY THEN SWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
TUESDAY FOR AZZ004-006-007-012-013-015-039-040.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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