556
FXUS65 KFGZ 311112
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
412 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TODAY, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE FIRST-HALF OF WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY,
ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GREATEST CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INITIALLY, THEN SPREADING INTO EASTERN ARIZONA AND NAVAJO NATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND DRY SURFACE
LAYER, THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORM.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINS
TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST SHOT FOR MORE AREA-WIDE
PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK TO MAINLY BE LIGHT, WITH
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER AIR QUICKLY SETS IN ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ARIZONA SITS AT THE BASE OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT,
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH LOOK PROBABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN.
COOLER, AND DRY CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN ON THURSDAY.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE DRY
COLD FRONT ASSOCAITED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. AS THE FRONT
MOVES TROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE FRIDAY, WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT REMAIN BREEZY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES (SOME EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) SET IN MAINLY FROM
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN OVER ARIZONA FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND A RETURN OF MILD
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 31/12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 01/12Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISO SHRA/TSRA AFTER 19Z, BECOMING SCT AFTER 03Z WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN +TSRA. WINDS VRB 5-10 KTS BEFORE
16Z, BECOMING W/SW 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 01/12Z THROUGH FRIDAY 03/12Z...SCT -TSRA/SHRA
THROUGH 15Z-19Z WEDNESDAY, +TSRA/+RA MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS W/SW 15-25
KTS WITH GUSTS 20-35 KTS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
TURNING COOLER. ISOLATED
SHOWERS TODAY, BECOMING SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED WETTING RAIN EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH TODAY,
BECOMING WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH ON
THURSDAY, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH ON FRIDAY, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH 15-30% ON THURSDAY, FALLING TO 10-20% ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
/9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-006-007-012-013-015-039-040.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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