493
FXUS65 KFGZ 312018
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
118 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TODAY, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE FIRST-HALF OF WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY,
ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
NEXT WAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA AT THIS
TIME. ALREADY SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND THAT WILL START BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY
AND EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE WAVE GETS CLOSER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
PRETTY GOOD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP SO WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE OVER
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
ZONES AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEFINITELY MADE IT INTO THE AREA. SINCE
THIS IS A PRETTY MILD SYSTEM, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH
AT ABOUT 8000-8500FT AND HIGHER, ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD
MIX DOWN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW AS ABOUT
7000FT.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL START MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TOWARDS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW. COOLER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FINALLY GETTING BACK DOWN TO NORMAL.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A TROUGH BRUSHING NORTH FRIDAY JUST KEEPS THE
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED FOR A DAY OR TWO AND BRINGS IN SOME DRIER
AIR AS ITS ONLY CONSEQUENCE. BY SUNDAY ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING WHICH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND AND SEND TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 31/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 01/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA, BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTER 03Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN +TSRA/+RA.
WINDS W TO SW AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 01/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 03/18Z...LINGERING
-SHRA THROUGH 20Z FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WINDS W TO SW AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
20-35 KTS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH LOCALIZED WETTING
RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATER ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WEST AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH 20-35% EACH ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH ON FRIDAY, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE AND LIGHTER AT 5-15 MPH. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-20%
EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006-007-012-013-015-039-040.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ011-014.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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