301
FXUS65 KFGZ 011746
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1046 AM MST WED APR 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TODAY, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
ABOUT MID-DAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
EXITING THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
AS DRIER AIR SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH REMNANT MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
STORM.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50
MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO COVER THIS THREAT.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ARIZONA SITS AT THE BASE OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT,
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH LOOK PROBABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN.
COOLER, AND DRY CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN ON THURSDAY.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT ASSOCAITED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. AS THE FRONT MOVES
TROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE FRIDAY, WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT REMAIN BREEZY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. COOLER TEMPERATURES (SOME EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL) SET IN MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND NORTH FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN OVER ARIZONA FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND A RETURN OF MILD
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 01/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 02/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, COULD STILL SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH
00Z. WINDS SW-W 15-25KTS, GUSTS 30-45KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
CALMING DOWN TO SW-W 5-15KTS AFTER 03Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 02/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 04/18Z...VFR
CONDITIONS, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS SW 15-25KTS, GUSTS
30-40KTS ON THURSDAY, N-NE 10-20KTS GUSTS 25KTS ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH LOCALIZED WETTING RAIN. WINDS
WEST/SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH EACH DAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH 25-45% TODAY, FALLING TO 15-35% ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR-
NORMAL. WINDS NORTH/NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-
20% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ010-
011-013-014-039-040.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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