701
FXUS65 KFGZ 011958
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1258 PM MST WED APR 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN
ARIZONA. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. MILD CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SINCE MID FEBRUARY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN
AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY, BUT THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE SUNDOWN. OTHERWISE, A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM MST / 8 PM NAVAJO NATION FOR MOST OF NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES FOR WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. A DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TONIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS
THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
PASS TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA, IT WILL
PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND DROP HIGHS
FRIDAY BY 5-10 DEGREES ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
DECREASING ON SATURDAY. HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST, POSSIBLY PUSHING SOME
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH DURING THIS TIME, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION - MOST LIKELY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
ABOUT FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. OUR LATEST FORECASTS INCLUDE A 20-30%
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THESE DAYS.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 01/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 02/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, COULD STILL SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH
00Z. WINDS SW-W 15-25KTS, GUSTS 30-45KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
CALMING DOWN TO SW-W 5-15KTS AFTER 03Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 02/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 04/18Z...VFR
CONDITIONS, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS SW 15-25KTS, GUSTS
30-40KTS ON THURSDAY, N-NE 10-20KTS GUSTS 25KTS ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THINGS DRY OUT WITH
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY CLOSE TO AVERAGE. WINDS SW-W 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS 35-45 MPH THURSDAY, BECOMING N-NE 10-20 MPH ON FRIDAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH 15-35% ON THURSDAY, DROPPING TO 10-20% ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS N-NE 10-15 MPH SATURDAY, E-SE
5-10 MPH SUNDAY, S-SW 5-10 MPH MONDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-15%
SATURDAY, 15-25% SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ010-
011-013-014-039-040.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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