804
FXUS65 KFGZ 021036
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
336 AM MST THU APR 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY, ALONG WITH CONTINUED
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. MILD
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
DRIER, AND COOLER AIR SETS IN TODAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY, KEEPING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. PEAK GUSTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30-40 MPH, BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN LOOK POSSIBLE.
STRONG GUSTS DO NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER
WINDY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT, A RETURN OF NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, HOWEVER
THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL PRIMARILY BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING DOWNWIND OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS.
LOCALIZED GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH WILL POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO SPAN FROM NEVADA TO TEXAS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO POTENTIALLY SNEAK NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MAINLY BE
ISOLATED THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND POTENTIALLY SCATTERED AT BEST
NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE LOOKS POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY ACROSS MORE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
NEVERTHELESS, MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER,
THUS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 02/12Z THROUGH FRIDAY 03/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS SW 5-10 KTS, INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS
AFTER 17Z, THEN SUBSIDING TO 5-15 KTS AFTER 02Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 03/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 05/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS N/NE 5-15 KTS ON FRIDAY, BECOMING E/NE ON SATURDAY. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS 25-35 KTS 03Z-15Z SATURDAY DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND FRIDAY
DRY AND COOL. WINDS SOUTHWEST 15-
25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH ON
FRIDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 20-35% TODAY, FALLING TO 10-20% FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL
WARMING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY, EXPANDING TO MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON MONDAY. WINDS EAST/NORTHEAST 5-15 MPH ON SATURDAY, THE BECOMING
SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH ON SUNDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 5-15% ON SATURDAY, RISING TO 20-35% BY
MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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