722
FXUS65 KFGZ 030530
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1030 PM MST THU APR 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MILD TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS BRINGING INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-
40 MPH, HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND USHERING IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS (DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO SINGLE
DIGITS OR A BIT BELOW ZERO). DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES COOLER ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE SOUTH OF THE RIM IN YAVAPAI/GILA COUNTIES. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR SATURDAY. SOME HIGHER
NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE FAVORED SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND MOUNTAINS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY RISE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GET PUSHED INTO AT LEAST
EASTERN ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MOISTURE, ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LEAD TO A LOW
CHANCE (10-30%) OF SOME LIGHT, MAINLY HIGH-BASED, SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. SOME DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY MID WEEK, WITH POPS DROPPING
BELOW 10% BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 03/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 04/06Z
EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT TRENDING TOWARD NW-
NE LATE. N-NE10-20G25KTS AFT 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. THE NE WINDS WILL STAY
ELEVATED JUST DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING
TERMINAL KSEZ.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 04/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 06/06Z...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS NE10-20KTS ON SATURDAY, SE5-15KTS ON SUNDAY.
NE WINDS MAY STAY ELEVATED JUST DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN EACH
NIGHT, INCLUDING TERMINAL KSEZ.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO AVERAGE. WINDS N-NE 10-20 MPH ON FRIDAY, NE 10-20 MPH ON
SATURDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-20% FRIDAY, 5-15% SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ON
EACH DAY. WINDS SE 5-10 MPH ON SUNDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING S-SW 5-10 MPH
ON MONDAY AND SW-W 10-20 MPH ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 15-35%
EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page