767
FXUS65 KFGZ 031741
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1041 AM MST FRI APR 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. GRADUAL WARMING AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY AND SATURDAY
A RETURN OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL PRIMARILY
BE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DOWNWIND OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS. LOCALIZED GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH
WILL POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO SPAN FROM NEVADA TO TEXAS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND INITIALLY LIGHTER WINDS.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO SNEAK NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE, LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY.
ACTIVITY INITIALLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY, EXPANDING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MONDAY. WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON TUESDAY, REINTRODUCING DRIER AIR
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EAST, HOWEVER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS,
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, THUS MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE, WITH A RETURN OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. RH
VALUES LOOK TO INITIALLY BE IN THE 10-20% RANGE, SO SOME AREAS OF
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY THEREBY REDUCING ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 03/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 04/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE N/NE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS UNTIL 02Z. WINDS
SUBSIDE TO 5-15 KTS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS TO
25-35 KTS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 04/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 06/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF A KFLG-KINW-KRQE LINE
18Z SUNDAY-06Z MONDAY. WINDS NE-E 10-20 KTS ON SATURDAY, BECOMING
S-SE 5-10 KTS ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SATURDAY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY, TURNING WARMER ON SATURDAY. NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 MPH TODAY, BECOMING EAST/NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH 10-20% TODAY, FALLING TO 8-14% ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GRADUALLY TURNING WARMER. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. WINDS SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH
ON SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH 15-30% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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