124
FXUS65 KFGZ 170916
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
216 AM MST FRI APR 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A TROUGH WILL CROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY
BUT WITH ALMOST NO MOISTURE AROUND WE WON'T SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH. WHAT WE WILL SEE IS COOLER AIR ARRIVING ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25-35
MPH.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. COLDER AIR WILL FIND ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WITH LOCATIONS
SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WARMER.
BRIEF RIDGING WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM AGAIN WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT LIFT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK BUT THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AND TIMING,
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW OUR WEATHER MAY BE IMPACTED
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 17/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 18/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS W/SW 5-15 KTS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NW-NE 10-20 KTS AFTER 14Z
THEN SUBSIDING TO 5-10 KTS AFTER 02Z. NE WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 18/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 20/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS N/NE 5-15 KTS ON SATURDAY, BECOMING S/SE ON SUNDAY. NE WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SATURDAY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVER APACHE COUNTY TODAY, THEN BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 MPH ON MONDAY, INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON
TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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