821
FXUS65 KFGZ 180448
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
948 PM MST FRI APR 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A DRY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO SINGLE DIGITS. STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH, THOUGH SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING. FOR TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AREAS
THAT AREN'T IMPACTED BY WINDS. IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT, THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN A
FEW WEEKS. THIS INCLUDES MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. TEENS
ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING AT TUSAYAN, BELLEMONT,
AND WINDOW ROCK - THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, DECREASING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY SHOULD INCREASE CLOUD COVER, WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF A SHOWER SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WED/THU AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
KEEP THE LOW TOO FAR NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA AT THIS TIME,
SO POPS ARE LESS THAN 10% FOR NOW.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 18/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 19/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS N/NE 5-15 KTS THROUGH 16Z, THEN BECOMING E/NE.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 19/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 21/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS S/SE 5-15 KTS ON SUNDAY, BECOMING S/SW ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRY AND SEASONABLE SATURDAY
AND THEN TURNING WARMER SUNDAY. NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY 10 TO 20 MPH, SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REMAINING DRY, CONTINUED WARM ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, TURNING COOLER WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
MONDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AND INCREASING
TO 15 TO 30 MPH, WITH GUSTS 40 MPH, ON WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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