178
FXUS65 KFGZ 181645
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SAT APR 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR
TODAY WITH WARMER WEATHER ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
BRIEF RIDGING WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED EACH DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY, BECOMING GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, FIRST ONE ON SUNDAY AND THEN A
SECOND ONE ON MONDAY. EACH WAVE WILL INCREASE THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH SUNDAY SEEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT IT IS LACKING LIFT
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE ON MONDAY, WE SHOULD SEE MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE OVERSHADOWED BY A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS REMAIN SPLIT ON THE
EXACT TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW BUT WHAT DOES LOOK LIKELY IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY LIMITED AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS SLATED TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FLOW THEN TURNS ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 18/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 19/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS NE-E 5-15KTS, GUSTS
TO 20KTS DAYTIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS,
KSEZ COULD SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS OUT OF THE NE 15-25KTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 19/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 21/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER HIGHEST TERRAINS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z EACH
DAY. DAYTIME WINDS SE-S 10-15KTS SUNDAY, S-SW 5-15KTS MONDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SUNDAY
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH WARMING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, TURNING COOLER WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON MONDAY,
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING
TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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