015
FXUS65 KFGZ 190513
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1013 PM MST SAT APR 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY, LASTING INTO TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THEN, A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST
WINDS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY, BUT AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE LOOK MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
A S/WV RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
THEN AMPLIFY TO OUR EAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD, ALLOWING ARIZONA TO REMAIN UNDER ABOVE NORMAL
HGHTS, DESPITE BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL LOSE
THE EASTERLY FLOW AS EARLY AS SUNDAY, EXPECT SHARPLY RISING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE EPAC AND
WILL SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR WINDS AND
ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURES DROP FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION, THERE ARE TWO CHANCES, BOTH ARE MINIMAL.
THE FIRST CHANCE IS ON MONDAY, AS RETURN FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGS
HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN ARIZONA. A FEW HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A A RESULT. THE SECOND CHANCE IS WITH THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
BE FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA, AS THE FRONT IS LARGELY DRY AND WEAKENING
AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES NORTH.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 19/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 20/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON (BASES NEAR 9000 FT
AGL), WITH A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF VIRGA OR AN ISOLATED -SHRA
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH KSEZ WILL SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS OUT
OF THE NE 15-20KTS. SE-S WINDS 10-15 KTS DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 20/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 22/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. DAYTIME WINDS S-SW 5-15 KTS MONDAY,
INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY AND
MONDAY UP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS S-SW
10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES 10-25%
SUNDAY, 15-35% MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, COOLING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WINDS S-SW 10-20 MPH ON TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING TO SW 15-30 MPH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, BECOMING W 15-25 MPH THURSDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES AT 10-20% TUESDAY, 10-25% WEDNESDAY AND 10-20% THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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