525
FXUS65 KFGZ 191041
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
341 AM MST SUN APR 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT
WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TODAY, WE WON'T SEE MUCH
OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE ON MONDAY, WE SHOULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING PACIFIC LOW
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD. COOLER AIR WILL START TO FILTER DOWN INTO
THE REGION FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING RIDGE AND THE DEEPENING LOW, WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ON TUESDAY,
INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY BUT
TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MEAGER AS THE BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO UTAH. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY CROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, WE SHOULD SEE THE FLOW TURN MORE ZONAL FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES,
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 19/12Z THROUGH MONDAY 20/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
ISO -SHRA OR VIRGA ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS AFTER
20Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SE-S AT 10-15 KTS AFTER
17Z.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 20/12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 22/12Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA AFTER 18Z MONDAY, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. S-SW WINDS AT 5-15 KTS ON
MONDAY, INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, TURNING COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 15 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 15
TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN AT 10-25% EACH
AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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