368
FXUS65 KFGZ 191652
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
952 AM MST SUN APR 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT
WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TODAY, WE WON'T SEE MUCH
OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE ON MONDAY, WE SHOULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING PACIFIC LOW
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD. COOLER AIR WILL START TO FILTER DOWN INTO
THE REGION FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING RIDGE AND THE DEEPENING LOW, WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ON TUESDAY,
INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY BUT
TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MEAGER AS THE BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO UTAH. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY CROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, WE SHOULD SEE THE FLOW TURN MORE ZONAL FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES,
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 19/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 20/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS,
AN ISOLATED VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS, DRY ELSEWHERE. WINDS SE-S 5-15KTS, GUSTS TO 20KTS
DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 20/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 22/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS 18Z MON TO 00Z TUESDAY. DRY REST OF THE TIME
PERIOD. DAYTIME WINDS S-SW 5-15KTS MONDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. S-SW 10-20KTS, GUSTS TO 30KTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SW 10-15KTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, TURNING COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 15 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 15
TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN AT 10-25% EACH
AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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