387
FXUS65 KFGZ 200505
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1005 PM MST SUN APR 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A HARBINGER
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARRIVE FOR MAINLY EASTERN ARIZONA MONDAY AND
FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A S/WV RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA TODAY WILL SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY TO OUR EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD, ALLOWING ARIZONA TO REMAIN
UNDER ABOVE NORMAL HGHTS, DESPITE BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ON THE VERGE OF REVERSING TODAY AND WE
ARE SEEING, AND WILL SEE, SHARPLY RISING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE EPAC AND
WILL SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR WINDS AND
ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURES DROP FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION, THERE ARE TWO CHANCES, BOTH ARE MINIMAL.
THE FIRST CHANCE IS ON MONDAY, AS RETURN FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGS
HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN ARIZONA. A FEW HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A A RESULT. THE SECOND CHANCE IS WITH THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
BE FOR FAR, FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA, AS THE FRONT IS LARGELY DRY AND
WEAKENING AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES NORTH.
AFTER THAT, RATHER BLAND AND NORMAL LOOKING ZONAL FLOW ARRIVES FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT WEEKEND COULD FEATURE SOME CHAOTIC
FLOW OVER THE WEST THAT MAY RESULT IN QPF CHANCES, BUT THIS IS
SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION...MONDAY 20/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 21/06Z
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FROM 18Z MON TO 00Z TUESDAY.
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS TO 35 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT, THEN S-SW 5-15 KTS AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 21/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 23/06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. S-SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SW 10-15KTS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY, S-SW WINDS INCREASE
TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY, WITH THINGS DRYING OUT
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. WINDS S-SW 5-15 MPH MONDAY, INCREASING TO S-SW 10-
20 MPH, GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES 15-35% MONDAY,
DRYING OUT TO 10-20% ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THINGS TURN COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WINDS
SW 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, SW-W 15-25 MPH ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN AT 10-25% EACH
AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page