942
FXUS65 KFGZ 200930
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST MON APR 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARRIVE FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST TODAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BUT WITH BETTER LIFT AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR WE
WILL ALSO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA, MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE I-17
CORRIDOR AND MORE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10-20 MPH ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING
PACIFIC LOW STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND DEPARTING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS
AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ON TUESDAY, INCREASING TO
20-30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT AS IT IS MARGINAL
AT THIS POINT, WE WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ONE AT THIS TIME. COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN PASSES THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN ADN INTO UTAH, REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. ANY MOISTURE THAN CAN FIND ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA AS A RESULT
OF THE LOW WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE MAY ONLY BE A FEW VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, WE SHOULD SEE THE FLOW TURN MORE ZONAL FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES,
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
AVIATION...MONDAY 20/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 21/06Z
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FROM 18Z MON TO 00Z TUESDAY.
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS TO 35 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT, THEN S-SW 5-15 KTS AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 21/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 23/06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. S-SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SW 10-15KTS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY, S-SW WINDS INCREASE
TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND TUESDAY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH TODAY,
INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-30% TODAY, DROPPING TO 10-20% ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 15-25 MPH FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-25% EACH AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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