843
FXUS65 KFGZ 210441
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
941 PM MST MON APR 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND FOR REMAINDER OF
THE WORKWEEK. GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, STRONGEST ON
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A BIT OF MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT, THE MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MANY LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD BUILDUPS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE GENERAL AREA OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
(10% CHANCE) BUT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION WILL SEE A 10-30%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRUSH ARIZONA.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO USHER IN A DRIER AIR
MASS AND STRENGTHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS. TUESDAY
WE ARE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH
GUSTING TO 30-45 MPH (THE HIGHER VALUES ESPECIALLY FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD). PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS. A WIND ADVISORY EVENTUALLY LOOKS ON TARGET FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR AT LEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, A BIT COOLER DURING THE DAYTIME UNDER JUST A
FEW CLOUDS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TROUGH WILL HEAD EASTWARD.
CONSEQUENTLY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
DIRECTION. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT
10-20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH MOST AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE.
FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUING TO BRUSH THE AREA.
LOOK FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME BREEZES WITH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 21/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 22/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS S TO SW
AT 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS AFTER 17Z TUESDAY, DECREASING TO 5-15
KTS AFTER 02Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 22/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 24/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS S TO SW INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-45 KTS ON WEDNESDAY,
THEN SW TO W 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY AND A BIT COOLER. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ON TUESDAY,
INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH GUSTING TO 35-45 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES 10-20% EACH AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND BREEZY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH EACH DAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-25% EACH AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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