420
FXUS65 KFGZ 211100
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST TUE APR 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A
DEEPENING PACIFIC LOW MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL USHER IS SOME COOLER BUT MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES PASS NEARBY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND DEPARTING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING, INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH, WITH SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND ACROSS THE
NAVAJO NATION AND THROUGH THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER. WITH THE WIND
WILL COME MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. WITH THIS WE WILL START TO SEE
SOME NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NAVAJO NATION AND THE
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW PUSHES INLAND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK UNLIKELY
BASED OFF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. WE WILL SEE THE FLOW TURN ZONAL
ACROSS ARIZONA AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WILL KEEP US SEASONABLY COOL WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS EACH DAY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE WE AREN'T LIKELY TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN SOME CLOUDINESS
ARRIVE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH CONTINUED AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE WITH EACH
SUBSEQUENT WAVE SO WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO RETURN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 21/12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 22/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING S-SW 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30
KTS AFTER 17Z. WINDS DECREASE TO 5-15 KTS AFTER 03Z, REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 22/12Z THROUGH FRIDAY 24/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
S-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-45 KTS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN SW-W
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY AND A BIT COOLER. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-20%. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15-25
MPH GUSTING TO 35-50 MPH ON WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES 8-20%
AND NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND BREEZY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH EACH
DAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 5-20% THROUGH FRIDAY THEN 15-30% ON
SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-139-140.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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