053
FXUS65 KFGZ 211650
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST TUE APR 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A
DEEPENING PACIFIC LOW MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL USHER IS SOME COOLER BUT MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES PASS NEARBY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND DEPARTING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING, INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH, WITH SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND ACROSS THE
NAVAJO NATION AND THROUGH THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER. WITH THE WIND
WILL COME MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. WITH THIS WE WILL START TO SEE
SOME NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NAVAJO NATION AND THE
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW PUSHES INLAND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK UNLIKELY
BASED OFF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. WE WILL SEE THE FLOW TURN ZONAL
ACROSS ARIZONA AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WILL KEEP US SEASONABLY COOL WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS EACH DAY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE WE AREN'T LIKELY TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN SOME CLOUDINESS
ARRIVE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH CONTINUED AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE WITH EACH
SUBSEQUENT WAVE SO WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO RETURN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 21/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 22/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS S/SW 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS THROUGH
03Z, THEN SUBSIDING TO 5-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 22/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 24/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS SW 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS ON WEDNESDAY, BECOMING W/SW
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY AND A BIT COOLER. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-20%. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15-25
MPH GUSTING TO 35-50 MPH ON WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES 8-20%
AND NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND BREEZY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH EACH
DAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 5-20% THROUGH FRIDAY THEN 15-30% ON
SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ109>114-139-140.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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