163
FXUS65 KFGZ 220052
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
552 PM MST TUE APR 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A WEAKENING PACIFIC TROUGH WAS APPROACHING ARIZONA
ON TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PUSHING A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. IN ADDITION,
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WERE BRINGING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT
10-20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY, AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ARIZONA, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN.
LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH GUSTING TO 30-45 MPH (THE
HIGHER VALUES ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD).
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS.
IN ADDITION, DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND THE GUSTY WINDS A RED FLAG
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, A BIT COOLER
DURING THE DAYTIME UNDER JUST A FEW CLOUDS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TROUGH WILL HEAD EASTWARD.
CONSEQUENTLY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
DIRECTION. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT
10-20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH MOST AREAS. LOOK FOR MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY
WITH A WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES.
FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUING TO BRUSH ARIZONA. LOOK FOR
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME BREEZES WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 22/00Z THROUGH THURSDAY 23/00Z
VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS S/SW 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS THROUGH
03Z. WINDS SUBSIDE TO 5-15 KTS OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAINING ELEVATED
DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS RAMP UP AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY,
BECOMING SW 15-25 KTS GUSTING 30-40 KTS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 23/00Z THROUGH SATURDAY 25/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE W/SW 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS. WINDS SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45
MPH ON WEDNESDAY, BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35
MPH ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-20% EACH DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. WINDS SOUTHWEST/WEST 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH EACH DAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-20% ON
FRIDAY, RISING TO 15-30% OVER THE WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ109>114-139-140.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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