057
FXUS65 KFGZ 231730
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1030 AM MST THU APR 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY, BREEZY, AND COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE STRONG PACIFIC LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO THE REGION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THE LOW LIFTS A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH, THE FLOW WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
TIGHT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND 20-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY. RH VALUES ARE BETWEEN 10-20%
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, THERE WILL BE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THERE, MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE NM BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TODAY, RETURNING
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, IT
WILL BE UNEVENTFUL.
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE INCREASES ON SATURDAY WITH SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH. AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS KEEP INCREASING THE MOISTURE WITH
EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN BUT CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW AS TO JUST HOW
MUCH WE WILL SEE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL, DROPPING 5-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING
TO NEAR AVERAGE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 23/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 24/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH SW THROUGH NW WINDS 5-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS.
WINDS DECREASE MOSTLY BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 03Z AND REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 24/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 26/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA DEVELOP AFTER 00Z SUNDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. W-SW
WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING 25-30 KTS ON FRIDAY, BECOMING SW 10-20
KTS GUSTING TO 25-35 KTS ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND FRIDAY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH EACH DAY, ALONG WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-20%. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE EASTERN LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH OVER THE WEEKEND, SUBSIDING TO 10-20
MPH ON MONDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 15-30% FOR THE WEEKEND, FALLING
TO 10-20% ON MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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