164
FXUS65 KFGZ 071054
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
354 AM MST THU MAY 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER MOVES IN TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH DRY WEATHER, MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH
DRY CONDITIONS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE, THUS IS THE WARMTH OF THE COMING AIR MASS. AS
MENTIONED, MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF
ARIZONA WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. THIS
COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BUT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, TYPICAL SPRING BREEZES AT 10 TO 20 MPH
EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 07/12Z THROUGH FRIDAY 08/12Z
VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 08/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 10/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST. DAYTIME WINDS W TO NW AT 10-20 KTS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR TERRAIN DRIVEN AT NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND FRIDAY
DRY CONDITIONS AND TURNING
WARMER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST AT
5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 8-15% BOTH DAYS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. BY MONDAY,
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AREA COULD SEE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
WE'LL KEEP YOU POSTED. WINDS WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH ON
SATURDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SUNDAY, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-15
MPH ON MONDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 5-15% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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