318
FXUS65 KFGZ 071838
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1138 AM MST THU MAY 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A DRY AND MILD AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THE DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ON SOME BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY'S WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE. STARTING TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO OUR
REGION, REACHING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY PEAKING
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TYPICAL SPRINGTIME BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH FROM THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK
DISTURBANCE CLIPPING NORTHEAST ARIZONA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN FAR NORTHEAST ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME,
BUT IT MOSTLY BE VIRGA OR A SPRINKLE AT BEST - POPS ARE UNDER 10%.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY EASTWARD
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED UP INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA REGARDING THIS PATTERN, THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WOULD MAINLY AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS, WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
POP VALUES ARE STILL 15% OR LESS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 07/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 08/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 08/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 10/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME WINDS W/NW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ON FRIDAY,
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WINDS
OVERNIGHT MAINLY LIGHT AND VRB.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TURNING WARMER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WEST/NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH EACH DAY, ALONG WITH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 8-15%.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWER NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON STARTING MONDAY. WINDS VARIABLE 5-15 MPH ON SUNDAY,
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
5-15% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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