324
FXUS65 KFGZ 080520
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1020 PM MST THU MAY 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A DRY AND MILD AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THE DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ON SOME BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY'S WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE. STARTING TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO OUR
REGION, REACHING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY PEAKING
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TYPICAL SPRINGTIME BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH FROM THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK
DISTURBANCE CLIPPING NORTHEAST ARIZONA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN FAR NORTHEAST ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME,
BUT IT MOSTLY BE VIRGA OR A SPRINKLE AT BEST - POPS ARE UNDER 10%.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY EASTWARD
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED UP INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA REGARDING THIS PATTERN, THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WOULD MAINLY AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS, WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
POP VALUES ARE STILL 15% OR LESS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 08/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 09/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST WITH FEW-SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WITH A RETURN OF WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS, 10-20 KTS, FROM 17Z-02Z, WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 09/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 11/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PLAN ON
WESTERLY WINDS, 15-25 KTS, ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, 5-10 KTS, ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TURNING WARMER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WEST/NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH EACH DAY, ALONG WITH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 8-15%.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWER NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON STARTING MONDAY. WINDS VARIABLE 5-15 MPH ON SUNDAY,
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
5-15% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...LAGUARDIA
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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