690
FXUS65 KFGZ 091651
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
951 AM MST SAT MAY 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION, REMAINING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE MORE EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS RISING TO 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMTH LOOKS TO
PEAK AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO FILTER DOWN
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY, MAINLY CLIPPING THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE
OBSERVED, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AT THE SURFACE WITH ONLY SOME VIRGA
PRESENT. AS THE WAVE PASSES BY, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EVER SO
SLIGHTLY AND WE WILL SEE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGE, STAYING
MOSTLY TO OUR WEST BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION STARTING ON MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MIDWEEK BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY (AND EVEN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER MAY BE HEARD). BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE REGION,
WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BEHIND THE WAVE IT LOOKS LIKE WE SEE A TROUGH
SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WITH THE RIDGE HAVING SLID FURTHER
TO THE EAST. THE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURNING. EXPECT THOSE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 09/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 10/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS W-NW 10-20KTS, GUSTS
25-30KTS DAYTIME, OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN
(ESPECIALLY AT KSEZ WITH WINDS NE 10-15KTS, GUSTS 20-25KTS).
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 10/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 12/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. DAYTIME WINDS VARIABLE 5-15KTS SUNDAY,
AND MONDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SUNDAY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH TODAY,
BECOMING VARIABLE 5-15 MPH ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM RH BETWEEN 5-15% EACH
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY, WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH ON MONDAY,
BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME
SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 5-20% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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