599
FXUS65 KFGZ 110930
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST MON MAY 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHS AROUND 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BY TUESDAY, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE REGION. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
MOSTLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS STARTING ON TUESDAY BUT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. BY WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF GRAND CANYON-FLAGSTAFF-SHOW LOW LINE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP FOR WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. EVEN
THOUGH WE DO SEE MOISTURE INCREASE, THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE
DRY. IN THESE AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS YAVAPAI AND WESTERN COCONINO
COUNTIES, WE WILL SEE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BEHIND THE WAVE THE FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
THOSE AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY.
AVIATION...MONDAY 11/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 12/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
WITH VRB WINDS 5-10 KTS. LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS REMAIN DOWNWIND OF THE
TERRAIN THROUGH 15Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 12/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 14/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS S/SW 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ON TUESDAY, INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND TUESDAY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. VARIABLE WINDS 5-15 MPH TODAY, BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM ON TUESDAY.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 5-15% EACH DAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS 30-40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, DECREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH ON THURSDAY, THEN BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20 MPH ON FRIDAY.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-20% WEDNESDAY, 5-15% THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS YAVAPAI AND
WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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