782
FXUS65 KFGZ 120540
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1040 PM MST MON MAY 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
VERY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH
VERY LITTLE GRADIENT-DRIVEN WIND. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TUESDAY, BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH DUE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ENOUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME FAIR-WEATHER CU/SC IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS FARTHER NORTH, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS, SO IMPACTS
WILL BE MINIMAL. ONE THING TO WATCH IS ENHANCED SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ALONG WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
LOCALIZED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY, EXPECT A FURTHER INCREASE CU/SC ACTIVITY, WITH
EVEN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS, EXPECT SOME COOLING FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, HOWEVER, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
A ZONAL, BUT WARM AND CONTINUED DRY PATTERN THEN PERSISTS INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 12/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 13/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS S-SW
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AFTER 17Z TUESDAY, DECREASING
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH SOME
ISOLATED VIRGA OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED GUSTY/ERRATIC SFC WINDS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 13/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 15/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/ERRATIC SFC WINDS. OTHERWISE,
DAYTIME SW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS WEDNESDAY, THEN W
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY AND WARM TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR DRY THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT S-SW
WINDS 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY, SW-W 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES FROM 5-15%
TUESDAY, 7-20% WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED, WITH
THE LOWER LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY REGION AT THE HIGHEST RISK.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS SW-W 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH ON
THURSDAY, SW-W 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY, SW 10-20 MPH, GUSTS 25-30 MPH ON
SATURDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 5-15% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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