302
FXUS65 KFGZ 122248
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
348 PM MST TUE MAY 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN AZ ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO, STRONG WINDS WITH
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO PORTIONS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
REMAINS OVERHEAD, BUT BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE
A SHORTWAVE BEGINS PROPAGATING AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS
WAVE IS BRINGING A SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE. FOR TODAY, JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING
HIGH-BASED. ALSO EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IS OVERHEAD.
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS FULLY TO OUR EAST, AND THE AXIS OF THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO CROSS OUR REGION. THE MOISTURE OVERHEAD LOOKS TO
PEAK ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE DRIER AIR SLOWLY OVERTAKES
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH, ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE RESTRICTED TO FAR
EASTERN AZ ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS PEAKING AT 15-25 MPH, GUSTING UP
TO 40 MPH. WITH THE CURRENT FUEL STATUS AND FIRE DANGER, LOW RH,
AND GUSTY WINDS, JUST ENOUGH PIECES ARE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AZ. AS
SUCH, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. STILL EXPECT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF RFW ZONES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST OUR AREA, FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL TO END THE WEEK. EXPECT LIGHTER WESTERLY
WINDS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT LOOKS TO ONLY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW
DAYTIME CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...INTO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH NORTHERN AZ. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE MAJORITY OF
LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THINGS DRY AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES, WITH LREF POPS STAYING BELOW 10%.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 13/00Z THROUGH THURSDAY 14/00Z
VFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VIRGA SHOWERS ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AROUND 02Z. ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY IN
FAR EASTERN ARIZONA, EAST OF A KSOW-K0V7 LINE. GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR VIRGA OR SHOWERS. WINDS S-SW 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS THROUGH 02Z, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-35
KTS AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 14/00Z THROUGH SATURDAY 16/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS SW-W 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH, AND HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO HIGHER
WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT REMAIN 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WIND SW-W 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, SW-W 10-20 MPH, GUSTS 25-30 MPH ON
THURSDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 5-15% EACH DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BUT NEAR AVERAGE TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER COOLDOWN MOVES IN. WINDS SW-W 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY, SW-W 10-20
MPH, GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON SATURDAY, SW 10-25 MPH, GUSTS 30-40 MPH ON
SUNDAY MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 5-15% FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, INCREASING
TO 10-25% SUNDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ104-106-107-109-112-113-115-116-139-140.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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