607
FXUS65 KFGZ 131125
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
425 AM MST WED MAY 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE HIGH HAS SHIFTED OFF TO OUR EAST AND THE FLOW HAS
TURNED MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE MOISTURE
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT EARLY THIS MORNING. TIMING OF THE MOISTURES
ARRIVAL AND THE BEST DYNAMICS DO NOT REALLY COINCIDE VERY WELL SO
MOST AREAS WILL SEE ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.
WITH THE WAVE FINALLY MOVING THROUGH TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP, RESULTING IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE BUT WIDESPREAD GUSTS 45+ MPH LOOK MARGINAL SO NO WIND
ADVISORY WILL ISSUED.
EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS,
CONDITIONS REMAIN PRETTY DRY. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS, FUELS STATUS,
AND GUSTY WINDS, WE HAVE A GOOD SET UP FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREA.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN HEADING INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT SHOULD START TO LIGHTEN UP SOME
FOR FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT
WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WE WON'T SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. A STRONGER WAVE/TROUGH ARRIVES
OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON SATURDAY,
INCREASING TO 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS SO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WINDS AS SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS IN SPOTS. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ANY
HEADLINES BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS THIS NEXT FEATURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. MOISTURE REMAINS FLEETING AND MOST MODELS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
TROUGH AND ITS PARENT LOW, WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 13/12Z THROUGH THURSDAY 14/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
ISO -SHRA/TS OR VIRGA BETWEEN 18Z-03Z, MAINLY EAST OF A KSOW-K0V7
LINE. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR VIRGA OR SHOWERS. SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS AFTER 17Z. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE AFTER 03Z-05Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 14/12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 16/12Z...FR CONDITIONS.
SW-W WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 KTS ON THURSDAY, THEN 5-15 KTS
ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND
LOW RHS. EXPECT WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG
THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO
WEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RH BETWEEN 5-15% EACH DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY,
BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH ON SATURDAY,
INCREASING TO 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 5-20% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ104-106-107-109-112-113-115-
116-139-140.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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