687
FXUS65 KFGZ 131954
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1254 PM MST WED MAY 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
WARM CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE
MAIN STORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS, LEADING TO AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. PEAK GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
LOOK TO LARGELY BE WITHIN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN ARIZONA, WITH SOME POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN FEATURES.
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
HOWEVER, WITH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TO ACTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE. THUS, MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE VIRGA OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NAVAJO NATION. BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND ANY AREAS OF VIRGA THIS
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO
SET IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHTER WINDS RETURN AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE INNER
MOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, GUSTIER WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45
MPH LOOK PROBABLE BY SUNDAY AS WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO PEAK. GIVEN THAT
DRY AIR IS STILL IN PLACE, ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY SPARSE WITH THE TROUGH, THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO NONE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EPS ENSEMBLES DO SHOW
A SLIGHT CHANCE, MAYBE AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES HOWEVER THE GEFS LOOKS LESS OPTIMISTIC ON THIS
POTENTIAL. FOR NOW, CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STILL VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 13/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 14/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS. ISO -SHRA/TS OR VIRGA UNTIL 03Z, MAINLY EAST OF A
KSOW-K0V7 LINE. WINDS TODAY ARE SW 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS,
THOUGH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR VIRGA OR SHOWERS. WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 03Z, BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 14/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 16/18Z...VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE SW-W 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH
DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RHS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH, ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH 7-15%. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY
ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALONG
WITH MINIMUM RH BETWEEN 5-15% EACH DAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH ON
SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH ON SUNDAY.
WINDS DECREASE TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 ON MONDAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH 5-15% ON SATURDAY, THEN 10-20% ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ104-106-107-109-112-113-115-116-139-140.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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