297
FXUS65 KFGZ 140831
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
131 AM MST THU MAY 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
THE WINDS WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING,
LOOSENING ITS GRIP ON ARIZONA. A TRAILING, VERY WEAK TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER ARIZONA TODAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY, AND THEN INCREASES
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
ATTENTION OVER THE WEEKEND TURNS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIER DAY WITH THE
SOUTHWARD DIGGING TROUGH AND TIGHTENING GRADIENTS, WITH PEAK GUSTS
IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT THE COMPLICATING
FACTOR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE RISING HUMIDITY IN RESPONSE
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. THOUGH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LOOKS MOSTLY DRY FOR US, THERE ARE
SOME MODEL RUNS THAT ARE DIGGING IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT, BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL,
BUT WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS ARIZONA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK ZONAL
FLOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT BASIN TROUGH PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING BREEZY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY, BUT SLACKENING GRADIENTS
THEREAFTER SHOULD LEAD TO LESS WIND THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 14/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 15/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
WIND BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SW-W WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AFTER 17Z THURSDAY, DECREASING AFTER 02Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 15/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 17/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS SW-W 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
A DRY AND WARM WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT W
TO SW WINDS 10-20 MPH BOTH DAYS WITH MINIMUM RH RANGING FROM
8-16%.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. THERE IS POTENTIAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
FOR AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA LOOKS
TO BE NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. DECREASED TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
MONDAY, BUT CONTINUED GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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