113
FXUS65 KFGZ 271720
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1020 AM MST WED MAY 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. WARMER CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
STRONG TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIVES SOUTHWARD AND STALLS
ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA. GIVEN THE FURTHER WEST POSITION OF THE
LOW, MOISTURE REMAIN LIMITED OVER ARIZONA. THUS, DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR TODAY, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK OVER ARIZONA. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH LOOK
PROBABLE, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WHILE SOME AREAS DO LOOK TO FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, THE THREAT OF 40+ MPH GUSTS DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO SUPPORT ANY WIND HEADLINES. GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS, AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY INTO NAVAJO NATION. FOR THIS, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY, PAINTED DESERT, AND THE KAIBITO PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, RH
VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 15% DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN NEAR
FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. DRY CONDITIONS AND
RISING TEMPERATURES SET IN ONCE AGAIN AS A RESULT, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. LIGHTER WINDS ALSO LOOK TO ENSUE, ASIDE FROM SOME TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZES.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 27/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 28/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR S-SW WINDS
15-25 KTS GUSTING 30-40 KTS THROUGH 03Z. AFTER 03Z, WIND SPEEDS
WILL TAPPER DOWN TO 5-15 KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KTS, GUSTING
NEAR 30 KTS RETURN BY 15Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 28/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 30/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. S-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
30-40 KTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO 10-20 KTS FOR
FRIDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY
WINDY, DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH TODAY AND ON
THURSDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-20% EACH DAY. NEAR-CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....TURNING WARMER AND REMAINING DRY. WINDS
WEST/SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH EACH DAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-20% ON
FRIDAY, FALLING TO 5-15% OVER THE WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ109-112-113-140.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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