215
FXUS65 KFGZ 271941
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1241 PM MST WED MAY 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. WARMER CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS PARKED OVER RENO AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST STARTING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT BREEZY DAYS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH SOME LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HIGH DESERTS. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THURSDAY WHERE THE THREAT IS HIGHEST AND MAY BE ISSUED AGAIN ON
FRIDAY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WHERE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW BRUSHES BY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO UTAH
AND WYOMING, WEAKENING AS IT DOES. A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL US THAT WILL PLACE OUR REGION UNDER A SOUTHWESTERN
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP TO SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 27/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 28/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR S-SW WINDS
15-25 KTS GUSTING 30-40 KTS THROUGH 03Z. AFTER 03Z, WIND SPEEDS
WILL TAPPER DOWN TO 5-15 KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KTS, GUSTING
NEAR 30 KTS RETURN BY 15Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 28/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 30/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. S-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
30-40 KTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO 10-20 KTS FOR
FRIDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST PLATEAUS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. LOOK FOR SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH, WITH
GUSTS 30-40 MPH EACH AFTERNOON, AND REMAINING ELEVATED OUT OF THE
SOUTH (5-15 MPH) OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MINIMUM RH VALUES 5-15% ON
THURSDAY, BECOMING 10-20% ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT LIGHTER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 5-15% EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST-SOUTHWEST EACH DAY AT 5-15 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ109-112-113-140.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ THURSDAY FOR AZZ112>114-140.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page