904
FXUS65 KFGZ 281725
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1025 AM MST THU MAY 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
ARIZONA BOTH DAYS AS A RESULT. WARMER CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...TODAY AND FRIDAY
A CLOSED-LOW REMAINS STALLED
OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY. AS A RESULT, COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. GIVEN
THE FURTHER WEST POSITION OF THE LOW, MOISTURE REMAIN LIMITED OVER
ARIZONA. THEREFORE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
MOST. A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR SHOWER CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT OVER
THE KAIBAB PLATEAU ON FRIDAY, BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE THE EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PEAK GUSTS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMID WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF NEAR-CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THEREFOR, A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS FOR THE LCR VALLEY AGAIN TODAY. ELSEWHERE, RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 15% DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY, WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOES
LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY, IT REMAINS LOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THUS, ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOKS
PROBABLE. LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. DRY CONDITIONS
AND RISING TEMPERATURES SET IN ONCE AGAIN AS A RESULT, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. LIGHTER WINDS ALSO LOOK TO ENSUE, ASIDE FROM SOME
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE EPS, CMCE, AND GEFS ALL SIGNAL TOWARDS
PWATS INCREASING NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, THIS LOOKS
TO MAINLY LEAD TO A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 28/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 29/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS S-SW 15-25KTS, GUSTS
30-40KTS DAYTIME, S-SW 5-15KTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 29/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 31/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS, NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS S-SW 15-25KTS, GUSTS 30-40KTS
DAYTIME FRIDAY, SW-W 10-20KTS SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND FRIDAY
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EACH DAY, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH EACH DAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH 8-18% TODAY, INCREASING TO 10-25% ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH, ALONG WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 5-15%
EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ112>114-140.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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