015
FXUS65 KFGZ 290459
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
959 PM MST THU MAY 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN COCONINO
COUNTY AS THE LOW SWINGS THROUGH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH
FRIDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A DEEP UPPER LOW (FOR LATE MAY) IS CENTERED NEAR THE
BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH NEVADA
AND INTO UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW, GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH A BAND OF HIGHER WINDS WILL
PERSIST JUST NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS WHERE GUSTS OVER
30 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE. FRIDAY - THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO ARIZONA,
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE
FORECAST, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM
MST (NOON TO 9 PM NAVAJO NATION) FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS
NORTHWARD. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN NORTHERN COCONINO
COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, CLOSEST TO THE LOW. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP, WITH CURRENT POPS AT 30-40%
FOR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND AROUND 10-20% FOR THE GRAND CANYON AND
PAGE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK - HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE STATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY AT THE USUAL HIGH ELEVATION COLD SPOTS (BELLEMONT,
TUSAYAN, PARTS OF FLAGSTAFF) BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN FARTHER WEST TO AROUND FLAGSTAFF BY MID WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE GENERALLY 10-30%, A BIT HIGHER
AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 29/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 30/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z ALONG
AND WEST OF A KGCN-KPGA LINE. S-SW WINDS BECOMING 5-15 KTS
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SEE ELEVATED WINDS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER
18Z, WITH S-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS GUSTING NEAR 40 KTS, ESPECIALLY
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 30/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 01/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR DECREASING SW WINDS WEST TO
EAST THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. W-SW WINDS 5-15 KTS FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE ON SUNDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY COOL ON FRIDAY AT ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WARM
UP CLOSER TO AVERAGE ON SATURDAY. WINDS S-SW 15-25 MPH, GUSTS 30-45
MPH FRIDAY, SW-W 10-20 MPH ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-25%
ON FRIDAY, 10-20% ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE ON SUNDAY, WARMING TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WINDS SW-NW 5-15 MPH SUNDAY, SW 5-15 MPH MONDAY, SW-W 5-15
MPH ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 5-15% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ FRIDAY FOR AZZ109>114-139-140.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
FRIDAY FOR AZZ009>017-039-040.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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