003
FXUS65 KFGZ 290724
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1224 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
WARMER CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY. AS A RESULT, COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. GIVEN THE FURTHER
WEST POSITION OF THE LOW, MOISTURE REMAIN LIMITED OVER ARIZONA.
THEREFORE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST. A
BRIEF SHOWER AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE
THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARIZONA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BIT WEAKER GUSTS OF 30-
40 MPH ELSEWHERE. FOR THIS REASON, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DOES LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY, IT REMAINS LOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THUS, ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED. THEREFOR, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND NAVAJO NATION.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. DRY CONDITIONS
AND RISING TEMPERATURES SET IN ONCE AGAIN AS A RESULT, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. LIGHTER WINDS ALSO LOOK TO ENSUE, ASIDE FROM SOME
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE EPS, CMCE, AND GEFS ALL SIGNAL TOWARDS
PWATS INCREASING NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, THIS LOOKS
TO MAINLY LEAD TO A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 29/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 30/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z ALONG
AND WEST OF A KGCN-KPGA LINE. S-SW WINDS BECOMING 5-15 KTS
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SEE ELEVATED WINDS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER
18Z, WITH S-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS GUSTING NEAR 40 KTS, ESPECIALLY
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 30/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 01/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR DECREASING SW WINDS WEST TO
EAST THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. W-SW WINDS 5-15 KTS FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE ON SUNDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SATURDAY
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH TODAY, HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.
WINDS THEN BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH 10-25% ON FRIDAY, 10-20% ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH, ALONG WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 5-15%
EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-139-140.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
/9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ009>017-039-040.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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