137
FXUS65 KFGZ 291124
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
424 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
WARMER CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY. AS A RESULT, COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. GIVEN THE FURTHER
WEST POSITION OF THE LOW, MOISTURE REMAIN LIMITED OVER ARIZONA.
THEREFORE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST. A
BRIEF SHOWER AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM.
WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARIZONA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BIT WEAKER GUSTS OF 30-
40 MPH ELSEWHERE. FOR THIS REASON, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DOES LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY, IT REMAINS LOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THUS, ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED. THEREFOR, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND NAVAJO NATION.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. DRY CONDITIONS
AND RISING TEMPERATURES SET IN ONCE AGAIN AS A RESULT, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. LIGHTER WINDS ALSO LOOK TO ENSUE, ASIDE FROM SOME
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE EPS, CMCE, AND GEFS ALL SIGNAL TOWARDS
PWATS INCREASING NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, THIS LOOKS
TO MAINLY LEAD TO A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 29/12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 30/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
-SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE 18Z-01Z ALONG AND WEST OF A KGCN-KPGA LINE,
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. WINDS S/SW 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS FROM 16Z TO 03Z, THEN SUBSIDING TO 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 30/12Z THROUGH MONDAY 01/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME WINDS W/SW 5-15 KTS EACH DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SATURDAY
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE DRY. WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH TODAY, HIGHEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. WINDS THEN BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH
ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-25% ON FRIDAY, 10-20% ON
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH, ALONG WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 5-15%
EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-139-140.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
/9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ009>017-039-040.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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