554
FXUS65 KFGZ 300513
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1013 PM MST FRI MAY 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE IN NORTHERN COCONINO COUNTY THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. WARMER CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA IS VISIBLE ON MID-LEVEL WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW A NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY AND CLIP NORTHWEST
ARIZONA TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL STAY DRY UNDER THIS
REGIME, HOWEVER MODEST INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST COCONINO COUNTY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE AS OF NOON MST, AND
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AROUND 4-6 PM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ANYONE PLANNING RECREATION ON LAKE POWELL THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION, WITH ERRATIC GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE
NEAR STORMS.
AWAY FROM STORMS, WINDY CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, WHERE MORE
WIDESPREAD SW GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ALONG THE RIM, HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. EAST OF THE RIM, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. BECAUSE OF THIS,
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND NAVAJO NATION.
THE TROUGH DEPARTS TOMORROW AND HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO BUILD. EXPECT
SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHTER WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HINTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER PW SURGES INTO THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME, SHOWERS CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AZ
BEGINNING TUESDAY.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 30/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 31/06Z
LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT, BECOMING W-SW 5-15 KTS AFTER
18Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 31/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 02/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS 5-15 KTS
EXPECTED, BECOMING S-SW 5-15 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NEAR-CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR MOST OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA UNTIL 8 PM MST/ 9 PM MDT.
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COCONINO COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET. DRY OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
10-20% SATURDAY, 5-15% SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARMER. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY, SPREADING TO THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM BY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DRY ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WEST/SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 5-15% THROUGH TUESDAY,
INCREASING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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