262
FXUS65 KFGZ 310434
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
934 PM MST SAT MAY 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN AS WELL,
BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED TO BRING COOLER
THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING, INCLUDING 20S IN PARTS
OF THE HIGH COUNTRY (TUSAYAN, BELLEMONT, FLAGSTAFF) AND MID 40S
FOR THE VERDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE STARTING SUNDAY
AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE AIR MASS WARMS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS HAVE ALSO FINALLY
SUBSIDED AND WILL BE MOSTLY 15 MPH OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE STATE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE
0.55"-0.65" RANGE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME. WHILE
THIS DOESN'T SOUND LIKE MUCH, IT IS IN THE 85TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE
FOR EARLY JUNE AS WE ARE GETTING INTO WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
DRIEST TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, STARTING TUESDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGION AND THEN SPREADING A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST BY
WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND UP TO THE WINDOW
ROCK AREA. RAIN CHANCES START TO DECREASE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 31/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 01/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT BUT TENDING TOWARD S TO SW AT 5-15 KTS
DAYTIME SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 01/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 03/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME WINDS S TO SW AT 10-20 KTS, TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED
WARMING TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE WEST/SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH, WITH
MINIMUM RH 5-15% EACH DAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS,
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM, AND CHUSKAS. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH EACH
DAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH IS 10-20% EACH DAY, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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