136
FXUS65 KFGZ 012020
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
120 PM MST MON JUN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, AND MAINLY
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OVER
SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
A BUILDING RIDGE WILL NUDGE ITSELF INTO OUR AREA FROM
AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING US WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES, WITH THE HEAT LIKELY PEAKING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST,
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AS
THE LOW PUSHES SOUTH, THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
INTO THE REGION, MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY AREAS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, ACROSS SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES.
BY FRIDAY, THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH PUSHES EASTWARD, BEFORE MOVING INTO
NEW MEXICO/TEXAS. WEAK RIDGING WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
BEYOND SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO DIVERGE FROM ONE
ANOTHER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH TO PUSH DEEP INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (KEEPS US DRY AND WINDY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER) OR WE COULD END UP UNDER A STRENGTHENING RIDGE
(KEEPS US WARM WITH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES - ALSO DRY). WITH SUCH A
WIDE RANGE, OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME AND WHAT IMPACTS THAT MAY BRING FOR US IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
AVIATION...MONDAY 01/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 02/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS,
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS S-SW 10-20KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 02/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 04/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME WINDS S-SW 10-20KTS, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
PRIMARILY DRY, BUT SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EACH
AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS ARE SW-W 10-20 MPH
EACH DAY. MINIMUM RH 7-15% EACH DAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DRY BUT A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SW-W 10-20 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT
PICK UP ON SATURDAY AT SW-W 15-30 MPH. MINIMUM RH VALUES 7-15% EACH
DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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