837
FXUS65 KFGZ 021655
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST TUE JUN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, AND MAINLY
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS WEEK. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
A COMPLICATED, YET NOT SO COMPLICATED PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT FIRST GLANCE, IT SEEMS LIKE
POTENTIALLY A RATHER CHAOTIC INTERACTION BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH, A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE CONSTANTLY TRYING TO BUILD EASTWARD
AND THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE WESTERLIES TRYING TO GAIN HOLD
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN THE MIDDLE OF ALL OF THIS WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW FORMING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENABLE
SOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO, ALLOWING CHANCES FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
TO INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES HAVE BEEN FADING OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, BUT ARE STILL PRESENT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
FARTHEST EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF OUR CWA.
DESPITE THAT, THE CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY TO BRING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF IMPACTS, BUT MAY PRODUCE SOME "DRY" LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FOR THOSE EASTERN ZONES.
BACK TO THE "NOT SO COMPLICATED" COMMENT. IF ONE WERE TO SIMPLY
EXAMINE THE STABILITY AND 500MB HGHT PROFILES ZOOMED IN OVER OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT WEEK, IT ACTUALLY DOESN'T CHANGE VERY MUCH. WE
STILL WOULD EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, AVERAGE DIURNAL WINDS
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN.
PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED TEMPERATURES WOULD PEAK AROUND WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK, BUT NOW, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY
ON DEEPER TROUGHING FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST. ALL IN ALL, TAKE OUT THE CHANCES FOR
MINOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE POTENTIAL
UPTICK IN BREEZES THIS WEEKEND, AND THEN THE OVERALL THEME JUST
DOESN'T CHANGE THAT MUCH.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 02/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 03/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SW-W 10-20KTS DAYTIME,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 03/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 05/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS SW-W 10-20KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
PRIMARILY DRY, BUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY. ANY CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. DAYTIME WINDS SOUTHWEST 10
TO 20 MPH EACH DAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DRY, BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME WINDS SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND THEN 15 TO 25 MPH FOR SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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